Oil prices and the small grower...

[GreenZone]

Quite a few years ago, in the midst and the aftermath of the 'seventies oil crises, Robert Rodale of "Organic Gardening" magazine raised the point that as petroleum prices rise, it favors the small (organic) grower.His reaoning ran along these lines:

1) Organic agriculture doesn't rely on petroleum based pesticides and fertilizers. So while we might be paying increased shipping on some products, including trips to the next county for manure or mulch, at least we'd be insulated from actual major increase in production costs of most products that we use.

2) Since we mostly market produce locally, freshness being one of the main advantages that we offer over mainstream agribusiness production, our shipping costs to market our goods might rise, but in smaller proportion. It stands to reason that it costs less energy to move a head of lettuce 20 miles or so, as opposed to 2000.

3) Since mainstream agribusiness isn't protected from the foregoing trends, their selling-prices must rise, and that makes us more competitive. We haven't reached Rodale's prediction of $10 tomatoes, but prices have increased markedly recently. Or so it seems to me.

So I'm thinking Rodale's scenario is maybe starting to materialize. And hoping it does work to the benefit of small non-chemical growers. Do you all have any thoughts on this??
--Randel

[Jodi]

Quite a few years ago, in the midst and the aftermath of the 'seventies oil crises, Robert Rodale of "Organic Gardening" magazine raised the point that as petroleum prices rise, it favors the small (organic) grower.His reaoning ran along these lines:

1) Organic agriculture doesn't rely on petroleum based pesticides and fertilizers. So while we might be paying increased shipping on some products, including trips to the next county for manure or mulch, at least we'd be insulated from actual major increase in production costs of most products that we use.

2) Since we mostly market produce locally, freshness being one of the main advantages that we offer over mainstream agribusiness production, our shipping costs to market our goods might rise, but in smaller proportion. It stands to reason that it costs less energy to move a head of lettuce 20 miles or so, as opposed to 2000.

3) Since mainstream agribusiness isn't protected from the foregoing trends, their selling-prices must rise, and that makes us more competitive. We haven't reached Rodale's prediction of $10 tomatoes, but prices have increased markedly recently. Or so it seems to me.

So I'm thinking Rodale's scenario is maybe starting to materialize. And hoping it does work to the benefit of small non-chemical growers. Do you all have any thoughts on this??
--Randel

Interesting indeed!
Of course we have been seeing this coming for years. However, how many of us just keep thinking it will be in the future and I'll deal with it later? Alot of what happens later has a whole lot to do with what we do and don't do now. It is a long term lifestyle. . .for some, a complete change in what, how and why we are doing things.

I stopped by a fairly new farmer's market. Hoping to find something worth while since the closest markets for our family are over an hour away. I was pleasantly surprised. Runned by Amish families with a decent selection and only 13 miles away!

I noticed some working in the fields that you could see just from walking to the building from your vehicle. With horses of course. I couldn't help but remember things from my teenage years and the farming I saw in the great lakes area and the Amish communities there too. After clocking the miles interesting and some strange thoughts ran through my mind. . .
* I've ridden 20 miles+ on horse back in a day; I could do it again. Just start really early in the day and then leave after break in mid-day heat. Why am I driving this thing? Over $30 to fill a tank.
* There is more to no or low-till gardening/farming then I ever thought. Just think of how much driving the tractor over the soil compacts the air and life out of the soil. let alone the other impacts this type of farming is causing.
* Protecting the environment has more than just what I do in my yard/fields/woods. It is a way of life. . .or it should be for all of us but how do I personally make improvements? And how to I hope to show others something better?

In a book I started reading last week, "Good Growing: Why Organic Farming Works", by Leslie A. Duram she reminds us of the consequences of the conventional way of doing things and gmo, lastest machinery, agrichemicals, over federal involvement has effected us. 1.) If you aren't growing it yourself or buying from a local grower, the person that actually grew the product you are purchasing only receives 10% or less of what you are paying for the item. gross profit only. And, 2.) I qoute, "Between 1984 and 1998, the price that consumers paid for food increased just 3 percent, but the price that farmers recived for their crops dropped an incredible 36 percent (Lauck 2000). Attempting to survive this economic crunch, many farmers are forced to take a disastrous jog on the 'treadmill of production': the ever-increasing need for more land and higher yiels, even though the economic and ecological sustainability of this system is short-lived (Cochrane 1993)."

The more sad news is that my husband and myself talked to a gentleman just over a week ago. Excited about growing and selling. Talking to him he was stuck in conventional thinking. No changing his mind and there was no way he could afford the 3 yr waiting period he saw to become certified organic. He could not see the woods for the dying tree. Even more disappointing is that he has 3 small children all under 9 and the small farming he is doing is right next to where they live! Ouch!

All the while these are complaining about prices on fuel, vehicles, chemicals, etc. Sort of like going to a counseling session and learning that you really do have a choice. You either continue to make the choice/s you are now making and do the same with the same results; or, you choose a different option to get different results. LIke a friend said to me, "craziness (the nice way to say it), is not to like what you see (or the results you are getting) but you still continue doing the same thing you have been doing over and over and over again, expecting different results." It just doesn't work! changes are in store and that means choosing something different and acting different. . .and then expect different and the better results!

So for those of us that see things as a whole picture, ever learning and growing of course, there will always be the opportunity to show there is a better way. That it works! And we are all better/safer off, the food tastes better, and nutritional availability of 16% to 70% more flavanoids and other miner nutrients than conventionally grown foods.

The question to myself is:
what do I do about it today?
For myself?
For others?

Try something new today. . .ask yourself these questions.
Can I do this a different way, or ways?
What would be the possible results?
Could the results be better than how I am currently getting?

Ok. . .guess, I went a little off. . . . :o

[PhilosopherStorm]

One of the factors we should keep in mind is that the cost of labor increases, and organic (or the Amish ways described) are VERY labor intensive. Do not get me wrong, for those of us who love to garden, the labor is a joy, but as far as larger scale (even small commercial) production, the labor costs will continue to rise faster than fuel costs (as is only natural given that the fuel costs are incorporated into the cost of labor).

[GreenZone]

Well, labor costs are relative. Relative to what others are being paid, and relative to what oneself could otherwise earn. In my area, labor costs DON'T seem to be increasing. At least not for me, nor for those around me. Our pay stays about the same from year to year with little response to inflation.
--Randel

[PhilosopherStorm]

The cost of labor does increase as the cost of fuel etc increases. There is no doubt about this. While you might not see it in the short term, such as from one week to the next, if you examine it over time there is no doubt. Do you know anyone making the same amount today that they made in 1970?

Also you can look to the increased costs involved in getting to work. This requires fuel for almost everyone, and that cost cannot always be absorbed by the employee. To put it another way, when the expenses of the employee go up, such as with fuel costs, then the relative pay decreases, and few of us are willing or able to accept constant decreases in income.

Of course there are other upward pressures on labor costs as well, not the least of which is government interference in its many forms.

The amount of labor involved in small scale farming has not significantly changed in nearly a century, yet the costs increase. The little progress that has been made comes in the form of the willingness of a small segment of the consumers to pay for the additional labor (and other costs) with higher prices on produce.

[darwinslair]

And I thought GZ starting threads was a new thing. I should read my "history"

Tom

<geez, did all my cients already leave on vacation? dead quiet here>

[HillsideDigger]

"However, how many of us just keep thinking it will be in the future and I'll deal with it later?"

It won't be much longer with the world using more than 3% of the remaining, known, economically recoverable world oil each year. No, that doesn't mean 33 years until the great oil shock occurs. It will be a lot sooner.