Recession rising like a phoenix

[darwinslair]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ak__6D.HTBQM

oh surprise surprise.

Tom

[reavilh]

They are talking layoffs again at work. Half of the people gone already, working shortened weeks and still don't have enough to keep us busy. I'm afraid it's goin' to be a hard winter for a lot of folks around here.

[FAADAN]

Even if added government spending would stimulate the economy, delaying the actual spending until right before the 2010 elections is criminal. The Dems are more concerned with staying in power than solving economic problems.

[uprooted_kentuckian]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ak__6D.HTBQM

oh surprise surprise.

Tom

I don't believe that article is very pertinent for most areas. Scottsdale is a special area, depending on the overspending of the wealthy.

[bughunter99]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ak__6D.HTBQM

oh surprise surprise.

Tom

Sadly, not a surprise at all. Unemployment has been predicted to hit 10% by Christmas for months now. I think it just hit 9 something.

[FAADAN]

Sadly, not a surprise at all. Unemployment has been predicted to hit 10% by Christmas for months now. I think it just hit 9 something.

The way I heard it, the stimulus package was supposed to keep unemployment below 8%.

[fruits&nuts]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ak__6D.HTBQM

oh surprise surprise.

Tom


But Bernanke said the recession was over. He wouldn't lie to us, would he?

[lanahi]

Yeah, the stimulus was supposed to keep down unemployment but it keeps creeping up. The health care bill is an "emergency" to keep people from dying, but it doesn't go into effect (if they pass it) until 2013. Really, really strange.

[Liberty_Man]

You just gotta beleive (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-tAmCpXtsI&feature=fvw):( ("]:([/url][url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g96kCnFx3M&feature=quicklist)

[uprooted_kentuckian]

Well, I'm afraid I'm spitting in the wind again, but here goes. The labor market will be the last part of our economy to recover. That is the natural path of recovery from recession. Focusing on high visibility areas like Phoenix or Las Vegas or Detroit can lead to skewed perspectives of both the recession and the recovery. Unemployment may continue to increase for another 5-6 months, but that doesn't mean the economy isn't healing.

If we're going to focus on Phoenix I guess we could also focus on Savannah, but that could skew things in the other direction. An overall view would be much closer to the truth.

[FAADAN]

You're right UK. The economy has always gone up and down. IMO the Dems took advantage of the situation as Rob Immanual said, "we can't waste a good crisis." They used the downturn in the economy to spend trillions we don't have on pet projects and re-election gimmicks. All this will do is prolong the agony but we will recover in the long run.

[darwinslair]

My issue with the economy is that most of the positives we have seen are artificial. Movement in the housing market? Majority are first time home buyers getting paid $8000 to buy a home. Durable goods? popped up when people were paid $4500 to buy a car. Christmas sales projections? Not going to happen. Unemployement? 9.8% by government numbers, real unemployment (number of people between 18-62 who have lost jobs or exited school who have no jobs now) is about 17%. If you include those who used to work full time and now have had their full time jobs replaced by part time jobs, the numbers go up to over 26%. TARP funds are paying banks to foreclose on homes. Giant investment banks are being buoyed up by being able to borrow money at 0% interest from The Fed, and then loan it back to them at 6% interest. All of the taxpayer money being pumped into the banks is sitting there because with the economy the way it is, it does not make sense to lend it back out.

And I do think it is going to get worse. There are going to be some upsides to this for some people, but I think the general downsides are going to be greater. There is money to be made out there. Real money, not just leaching off of the subsidies and hand outs. But the misery is going to keep growing, and there is no such thing as a jobless recovery unless they find a way to actually eliminate those without jobs because no one willingly starves, and I dont think they want a civil war.

Tom

[reavilh]

The Company I work for is tied directly to the new housing and business industry (We make all kinds of electrical metering devices, switches, and such). This is the slowest we have been since 1984.

[uprooted_kentuckian]

I don't believe you can substantiate 17%, let alone 26%. I do agree that much of the "very" positive data is as you said. To think that things won't get better goes against history. Markets correct themselves. This is really just a large correction. The sun will come up tomorrow.

[reavilh]

I don't believe you can substantiate 17%, let alone 26%. I do agree that much of the "very" positive data is as you said. To think that things won't get better goes against history. Markets correct themselves. This is really just a large correction. The sun will come up tomorrow.

UK, I really hope you're right. but the majority of factory jobs around here is the manufacturing of boats. Nothing is getting any better. The only bright spot in the local economy is one company is closing a factory in Tennessee, and moving the operation to Lebanon. Will bring a total of 10 jobs to the area.