human influence on global warming

[Lavandula Girl]

Saw this on the wire this evening - it'll be really interesting to see what the report says.

http://my.earthlink.net/article/nat?guid=20070122/45b444d0_3ca6_1552620070122-122474480

[Ohiorganic]

The people whgo discount the Human factor in global warming must also discount all the huge cities, earth moving projects (like changing the course of the Mississippi and Yellow rivers, for example) and other huge changes we humans had wrought on the planet especially in the past 75 or so years.

Humans have had a profound effect on the planet and one of the results is climate change/global warming. I notice the skeptics are quick to mention these huge transformations of the planet when the news is postive but when CC/GW is mentioned suddenly we humans have done nothing but apparently live in caves and are still hunting and gathering with zero impact on the planet.

Face it folks we have changed the planet from ocean to atmosphere and because we did/do not know what we are doing there are bad reprocussions. We have dirtied our nest and if we do not start the clean up NOW there may not be much of a future for our grandchildren or their grandchildren.

[Lavandula Girl]

Amen!

[Cliff Timmons]

What about the fact that the sun is hotter?
I think that has more to do than a 1968 rambler belching smoke.

[johno]

Cliff, I'll have to look into the sun being hotter - hadn't heard about that. But let's be fair - there's more than ONE old rambler belching smoke.

[Cliff Timmons]

You're right and I am for cleaning up our home.
I'm just not convinced that humans really have that much influance on this situation.

But then, I'm a bonehead and I'm sure there are a lot of folks that know a lot more than I do. <grin>

[boston]

I try to stay out of these kinds of debates. Everybosy has their opinion and its very unlikely they are not gunna change it. But since the sun was brought up....... What about suns spots? Its a proven fact that they do affect weather and a rambler belching smoke is not going to cause that

[goldpearl]

What about compost? Some of the articles I read yesterday say that composting cow manure and other resources is heating up the planet. This one made me scratch my head. Is there a way to cool compost and still get the same benefits?
Cliff, even if people are not the only cause of the problem, you have to admit that we have not always been the best guardians of the planet.
You may not be able to keep Grandma around forever, but we can make sure she gets the best of care and knows how much we love her before we have to let her go.

[Lavandula Girl]

You'll find folks on both sides of the argument, I agree. But what harm is there in changing our behavior? Here's an interesting article regarding the sun's contribution to global warming. Even if you don't take it at face value, the greenhouse effect that we are causing only exascerbates the sun's contribution.

Greenhouse Gases, Not Solar Activity, Cause of Global Warming

KATLENBURG-LINDAU, Germany, August 3, 2004 (ENS) - Solar activity affects the climate but plays only a minor role in the current global warming, a German-Finnish team of scientists has found.

Since the middle of the last century, the Sun has been in a phase of unusually high activity, shown by frequent occurrences of sunspots, gas eruptions, and radiation storms.

The influence of the Sun on the Earth was believed to be one cause of the global warming observed since 1900, along with the emission of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, from the combustion of coal, gas, and oil.

But Professor Sami Solanki, solar physicist and director at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, is not convinced that the increased activity of the Sun is responsible for global warming.


Solar physicist Dr. Sami Solanki is director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Photo courtesy MPS)
He says that based on his team's research, the Sun can be responsible for, at most, only a small part of the warming over the last 20 to 30 years.
"Just how large this role is, must still be investigated," he says, "since, according to our latest knowledge on the variations of the solar magnetic field, the significant increase in the Earth’s temperature since 1980 is indeed to be ascribed to the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide."

Solanki and other researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) and at the University of Oulu in Finland reconstructed solar activity based on sunspot frequency since 850 AD.

They found that since 1940 the mean sunspot number is higher than it has ever been in the last thousand years and 2.5 times higher than the long term average, as they report in the scientific journal, "Physical Review Letters."

Then they combined historical sunspot records with measurements of the frequency of radioactive isotopes in ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic.

In addition, the MPS scientists took the measured and calculated variations in the solar brightness over the last 150 years and compared them to the temperature of the Earth.

"Although the changes in the two values tend to follow each other for roughly the first 120 years, the Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time," they said.

The Sun affects Earth's climate through several physical processes. For one thing, the Sun's total radiation, particularly that in the ultraviolet range, varies with solar activity.


The Sun as it appeared on August 2, 2004 (Photo courtesy European Space Agency)
When many sunspots are visible, the Sun is somewhat brighter than in "quiet" times and radiates considerably more in the ultraviolet, the MPS scientists say.
On the other hand, the cosmic ray intensity entering the Earth’s atmosphere varies opposite to the solar activity, since the cosmic ray particles are deflected by the Sun’s magnetic field to a greater or lesser degree.

A model proposed by Danish researchers that has attracted much attention from solar and climate scientists says that the ions produced by cosmic rays act as condensation nuclei for larger suspension particles and so contribute to cloud formation.

With increased solar activity, and stronger magnetic fields, the Danish model shows, the cosmic ray intensity decreases, and with it the amount of cloud coverage, resulting in a rise of temperatures on the Earth. Conversely, a reduction in solar activity produces lower temperatures.

To check this idea, Dr. Solanki and fellow MPS scientist Natalie Krivova calculated the Sun’s main parameters affecting climate for the last 150 years using current measurements and the newest models.

The calculated the total radiation, the ultraviolet output, and the Sun’s magnetic field, which modulates the cosmic ray intensity.

They came to the conclusion that the variations on the Sun run parallel to climate changes for most of that time, indicating that the Sun has indeed influenced the climate in the past. Just how large this influence is, is subject to further investigation.

However, they said, "since about 1980, while the total solar radiation, its ultraviolet component, and the cosmic ray intensity all exhibit the 11-year solar periodicity, there has otherwise been no significant increase in their values. In contrast, the Earth has warmed up considerably within this time period. This means that the Sun is not the cause of the present global warming."

[Cliff Timmons]

Cliff, even if people are not the only cause of the problem, you have to admit that we have not always been the best guardians of the planet.
You may not be able to keep Grandma around forever, but we can make sure she gets the best of care and knows how much we love her before we have to let her go.
Not only do I admit that, but am behind you on this.
Ever see a Barn Swallow nest? They even have the sense not to "poop" in their own nests.

I'm just not sold on the "fact" that we are to blame or if we are, that we can reverse Global Warming.

[bunkie]

i agree with you all here, also. we do very much need to clean up our planet. but NASA has even admitted to the affects on our planet (climates) by the sun's solar flares and sunspots which have picked up in strength dramatically this year. some info below. peace, bunkie.

http://search.nasa.gov/search/search?q=solar+flares+climate&output=xml_no_dtd&sort=dateADALAd1&site=nasa_collection&ie=UTF-8&client=nasa_production_lb&oe=UTF-8&proxystylesheet=nasa_production_lb&searchType=lb

[mrtomatoexpres]

my 2 cents we are the biggest problem of global warming

[LaRae]

I wish the experts would make up their mind....back in the 70's/80's we had TIME magazine with the cover and article announcing we were headed for a ice age...global cooling, by 2000 we were all going to be wearing parkas and living in igloos!! Oh and don't forget the population experts from the same era saying we'd all be cannibals by now because no food would be left because of birth rates. :rolleyes:

I do think humans can definately adversely effect the planet and I believe we have an obligation to properly care for the planet/animals. However I also believe that there are set weather patterns (and cycles) that happen no matter what we do or don't do.

All this 'the sky is falling' and Al Gore is now some sort of ecololgical expert is a bit much.

LaRae

[bunkie]

more recent articles on the sun's cycles...peace, bunkie.

"Solar Cycle 24"

http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=RNWI,RNWI:2006-09,RNWI:en&q=%22Solar+Cycle+24%22

Flares from sun could cause telecommunications blackout
IRNA,*Iran*- Jan 28, 2007
... Aschwanden said on the sidelines of an international conference on `Challenges of Solar Cycle-24' at the Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) here. ...


Nigerian Tribune
Science and Technology
Nigerian Tribune,*Nigeria*- Jan 24, 2007
The debate over the next cycle, known as solar cycle 24, Douglas Biesecker, a physicist at NOAA’s Space Environment Centre said he been passionate about ...

Scientists ‘pool grey cells’ to deliberate on solar physics
Ahmedabad Newsline,*India*- Jan 23, 2007
‘Challenges for Solar Cycle 24’, saw around 130 participants including 40 foreign delegates. The conference brought important science issues to the fore and ...

THE MOGAMBO GURU
Free Market News Network,*FL*- Jan 10, 2007
Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 'looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,' ...

[Cliff Timmons]

Taa Daa!
Why is Mars warming? http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17977

Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report

Data coincide with increasing solar output
Written By: James M. Taylor
Published In: Environment News
Publication Date: November 1, 2005
Publisher: The Heartland Institute


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The planet Mars is undergoing significant global warming, new data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show, lending support to many climatologists' claims that the Earth's modest warming during the past century is due primarily to a recent upsurge in solar energy.

[LarryS]

While there is no doubt that the earth undergoes cycles in warming and cooling, studies have shown conclusively that during the past half century,
the warming is occuring at a rate that is inconsistent with solar activity.

It is so extreme that only the very tunnel visioned could continue to preach that this warming is a normal cycle.

One year of warm, or cold, weather proves nothing about the problem. The scientists, IMHO, are absolutely right on this one. We are the biggest cause of the problem, and we may be condemning ourselves to extinction.

We are on a path to disaster, and our politicians do nothing, fearing a problem with the economy.

[Cliff Timmons]

But why is Mars warming up?
Did we do that?

[johno]

Yeah, Cliff. Didn't you hear? Back when we sent those probes to Mars we accidentally started a chain reaction. Pesky little buggers, aren't we?

[Sandbar]

"Rover" left a "pile" here and a "pile" there ... soon, there was enough methane to affect the climate. Bad DogBot! Bad!

[Cliff Timmons]

<grin>
You guys are crazier than I am.
<grin>

[emilie]

I did not really think there were people who did not believe in global warming!
I do not think the realistic goal is to REVERSE global warming but to SLOW it DOWN- to take care of the earth and do what is best.

The climate change is just one indicator that something- NOT quite right is going on- IMO. There are so many other things that just ARE not quite right too. Climate just seems obvious.
We are to be stewards of the earth- and we are not. We are destroying it with excess.
Not one person can fix it- but if we all work together- we can do SOMETHING.
It is the thought process of - "One person can't make a difference so it doesn't matter what I do-" You can make a difference if you choose to.

[Cliff Timmons]

Emilie, I agree with your statement, "We are to be stewards of the earth- and we are not. We are destroying it with excess." I'm just not convinced, given that Mars is heating up as well that Global Warming is caused by mankind. I think it is well documented that Earth is warming.

But this is our temporary home and we need to take care of it. So while we disagree with Global warming causes, I think we agree on quite a bit also. <grin>

[tsteven1]

I am glad for the freely offered and diverse points of view. I'll stick with Cliff on this one. Especially as regards my personal desire to conserve my consumption in the Earth's interest.

[LarryS]

This argument has been made by some. The latest studies that I have read indicate that the warming trend we are seeing in the last 30 years is definitely not related to solar activity. Analyzing this mathematically shows rather substantial proof that this is NOT the cause of the warming we are seeing.

Clearly, there have been periods of solar activity which have been related to climatic change, but apparently this explanation holds no water.

Maybe we cant reverse the trend. If not, we have unleashed a catastrophe on our childrens children.

[Cliff Timmons]

The same amout of time study, 20 to 30 years, has been given to Mars research. While the article says that Greenhouse Effects are still to blame for some of the Earth's warming, clearly it is not as bad as first thought.

It's a good article.
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17977

Does this mean that we should forget about emmissions here? No, of course not. However, it isn't the "Chicken Little" story we have been hearing from the far Left.

As Dad used to say, "Moderation in everything." <grin>

[mrtomatoexpres]

america is the biggest cause of globalwarming:mad:

[Cliff Timmons]

Evil evil America.

[johno]

I think it's all the cows producing greenhouse gasses. Evil cows.

[Cliff Timmons]

My wife says,........... when it comes to gas,... I'm guilty as homemade sin.

[Lavandula Girl]

Here's the advance press on the report I referenced in the first post for this thread. The full report should be available tomorrow.
http://my.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20070201/45c173d0_3ca6_15526200702012058140040

[Lavandula Girl]

full report

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

[LarryS]

All the planets and moons will, more or less directly, respond to warming during increased solar activity. Scientists took that into account when they
published the latest research results.

For the past 30 years, the Earth has been warming at rates which significantly exceed the solar contribution. Significantly.

It is something not to be pooh-poohed any longer, IMO.

[Journey]

I heard Al Gore was nominated for a Nobel Peace prize for something relating to global warming? Is this true? Man I would be pissed off if I were one of the climate pseudo-scientists. All Gore did was make a movie and fly a jet around the country pumping it.

[whodat]

I agree that the alarmists run around screaming that the sky is falling so much that it gets hard to listen to it, but you also only have to look around you to see what a tramatic change has occured in our own lifetimes to see where it is going if we don't make an effort to change our ways. I remember something from high school science where bacteria samples were taken from various places around the school and grown in petri dishes. It was really just to show us what was living around us, I think, but what caught my eye was the lesson after the lesson was over. Whenever the colony growing in the petri dish grew, it grew slowly at first and as the numbers increased, the growth rate also increased, as more individual cells were dividing and reproducing.. so the colony was happy and healthy, enjoying it's dish full of resources. Then it reached a point where it's resources were gone and it's toxins had taken their place and the colony died. I think it's amazing that this planet has such a self sustaining balance of living organisms where each one takes the waste products of another organism and uses that as a resource. Our symbiotic partners are of course, the plants. Those trees that used to grow where the Super WalMart now sits, and those that grew where the parking lot is now. Those that used to be where Boston is now, and New York City, and Atlanta. We like to lament the demise of the rainforests because they are standing in the way of someone else's dreams, but it is fine to see our own get bulldozed and burnt, because we need another good steakhouse in town. When I stop and realize how much my neighborhood has changed during my own lifetime, it makes me wonder what will be left for my grandchildren's children. Six billion people on the planet now and rising... they make a lot more babies than were being born during my childhood. They cut down a lot more trees, drive a lot more cars, dump a lot more garbage which churns out a lot more CO2 and methane which has fewer and fewer trees left to convert it back to oxygen. At some point, we will no longer have that balance and it has to affect our little blue petri dish as well. We love to say that we are the most intelligent beings. We love our big brains, and yet we will blindly follow the very same trends as so much bacteria in a petri dish.